Is the Atlantic hurricane season expected to be above average?

Written by Staff Writer (CNN) — According to an analysis released today by the NOAA, the Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be above average for the second year in a row. This makes…

Is the Atlantic hurricane season expected to be above average?

Written by Staff Writer

(CNN) — According to an analysis released today by the NOAA, the Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be above average for the second year in a row.

This makes 18 of 19 years since Atlantic hurricane season has been above average. The NOAA researchers said this could be due to higher and more complex weather patterns that require high levels of automation and forecasting efforts.

The research goes on to predict higher than average season for El Niño, the tropical cyclone phenomenon which is characterized by warmer water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The study estimates that an El Niño will develop around October.

Three-fourths of the 35 named Atlantic storms since 1950 have developed during an El Niño.

The report said the season is in the form of an El Niño in the Atlantic basin. It estimated that an average season is 22 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes, which can be above or below major Category 3, 4 or 5.

The report also released the lowest season average for the eight named hurricane years since 1950. This goes to show that natural weather patterns can have an impact on hurricane forecasting.

It said the current season, in which there are 25 named storms, 11 hurricanes and four major hurricanes, is down from last year’s 24 named storms, 11 hurricanes and six major hurricanes.

Despite the down year, the 2018 season is the most active season on record since 1953, when there were 37 named storms, 18 hurricanes and 8 major hurricanes.

More than 80% of all Atlantic hurricanes occur over the warmest six-month period that begins in May and ends in November.

When it comes to North American waters, El Niño sets up protective layers of cooler water and air between the surface and upper troposphere, making any hurricane activity off the American coast less intense than predicted.

The report says by November, the phenomenon typically ceases due to a changing atmospheric circulation.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November 30.

Leave a Comment